According to LyP, it would take nine years to return to the exports of nine years ago, but in other scenarios it would take a quarter of a century
NOTICIAS ARGENTINAS – The fall in exports and trade, in general, that takes place in the pandemic aggravated a problem in the Argentine economy that began in 2011, and its recovery to return to the levels of then could take 9 to 25 years, according to the different scenarios projected by the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.
“Since the Pandemic broke out, exports have fallen by 5.3% and are expected to fall by 11.1% by the end of this year, which means a loss of US $ 7,258 million,” said the entity.
He also warned that “both the National Government and the opposition raise the need to grow in exports, although without a clear plan.”
In 2011 the export record was reached, with US $ 82,981, but from then on there was a marked contraction in foreign trade, with measures taken from the end of that year such as the “stocks” of the exchange market, in a context shortage of foreign currency, and trade restrictions established by the Secretary of Commerce, such as Advanced Export Declarations (DJAI).
In four years, exports fell by 31.57% to a level of US $ 56,784 million that, although it had a slight recovery in the following years, the collapse of international trade caused by the pandemic allows us to project a 2020 with sales abroad below US $ 60,000 million.
At the current levels, returning to the nominal levels of nine years ago would imply an export growth of around 40%, a performance that is unlikely to be fulfilled in the short or medium term, so it is possible to make projections of different scenarios to know when an amount similar to that of 2011 could be reached.
LyP developed three scenarios, among which the most likely one “contemplates an average growth of 3% for the next few years”, based on “the projections for world trade made by the WTO before the pandemic.”
“This context takes into consideration: global uncertainty; evolution of the trade war between the US and China and the existence of export duties and other restrictive measures that prevail ”.
With this approach, it would take 13 years (until 2033) to return to the export levels of 2011.
The entity also proposed a “pessimistic” scenario, based on “the evolution of Argentine goods exports in the last ten years, which would yield an average growth rate of 1.5% per year”.
“Following this projection line, in 10 years we will slightly exceed the levels of 2019,” he said, but it would take 25 years (until 2045) to get closer to US $ 82,981 million nine years ago.
The “optimistic” option is based on the export base that “advances at the rate of the recovery observed during 2016-2019, that is, at a rate of 4% per year (it also coincides with the average growth of the 2004-2019 period).
“If this scenario materializes, exports would exceed the levels of 2011 in nine years (until 2029). However, it must be taken into account that it is an extremely optimistic scenario ”, LyP warned, noting that“ the growth rate of exports in the world in the last ten years was 2.2% per year on average, while exports from Latin America and the Caribbean grew at an average rate of 1.8% per year ”.
