IPROFESSIONAL – The market was heading to close 2020 with a calm exchange rate climate, far from those days marked by the nervousness that Argentina went through at the end of October, where the blue dollar reached $ 195 and generated uncertainties around the weakened peso.
In parallel, helped by the seasonal issue, the entity led by Miguel Pesce managed to rebuild, at least in part, its coffers. After the floor of December 1, when they touched the minimum of US $ 38,619 million -the lowest level in 4 years-, the reserves closed on Wednesday at US $ 39,216 million. Thus, they totaled $ 597 million in the month.
The recomposition of reserves had to do with the purchase of some US $ 400 million that the BCRA was able to make in the exchange market and with another US $ 344 million that were added to the reserves for revaluation of assets in the agency’s portfolio.
All this heralded a much calmer end of the year than previously imagined. However, in the run-up to Christmas, blue rose $ 7 and climbed $ 9 in the week shortened by the holidays, a sum that brought its price to $ 159.
And this start of the week, it rose another $ 5, to settle at a level of $ 164 for sale. In other words, in two days it rose 12 pesos, the price of the dollar in the informal market jumped $ 5 and stands at $ 164. Already accumulates a raise of $ 12 on two wheels
What’s next, according to experts?
The doctor in economics Agustín Monteverde, in dialogue with this medium, warned that “in reality what we are experiencing is an exchange fiction” and argued that the market would remain unbalanced if the Government had not borrowed to lower exchange rates.
In addition, the specialist put the future of the country’s economy in the hands of a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF): “If this does not arrive in March, we will probably be facing a new monetary crisis, greater than the previous one” .
Consulted by iProfessional, the economist Aldo Abram explained that, beyond the sudden increase in blue, the tranquility that the market is experiencing is due to several factors: one of them is that the Government, and particularly Minister Martín Guzmán, “began to demonstrate an image of economic rationality ”, along with measures to reverse the“ super stocks”.
And the other great cause that influences, the specialist explained, is the time of year, where the demand for pesos increases to pay the half bonus, buy gifts for the Holidays and even to pay for vacations.
However, he warned that “this can be reversed with great force between February and March if at that time the Central does not manage to handle the pesos that are going to begin to be left over because people are going to stop suing them,” Abram warned.
Monteverde agreed with his colleague in pointing out that “we are at the time of greatest demand for money of the year. Now all those pesos that companies are receiving to pay salaries and bonuses are going to be poured into the market and that injection of money supply is going to come with the fall in the demand for money and February is going to be a spicy month”.
Nicolás Pertierra, an economist at the CESO, agrees with his colleagues by citing the seasonal increase in the demand for pesos as one of the factors that influenced the low mobility in the prices of different dollars.
However, the sudden rise in the parallel could indicate that this effect could already be neutralized.
“Dollarizing pressures will continue to exist, they will not disappear. The issue is to manage them so that there are no sudden jumps or a run, because there are still funds that were in pesos and they will want to continue coming out in dollars,” he warned.
For his part, Joel Lupieri, from the EPyCA consultancy, in a context in which the blue has been awakening, warns that this relative tranquility “may be transitory” and puts the focus of attention, like Monteverde, on the Government’s negotiations with the IMF.
“If the Fund gives suggestions to modify the policy of managing the exchange rate, then we will see an increase in nervousness in the operators,” explained the expert, adding that although the Alberto Fernández administration is doing everything possible to to go through the Festivities calmly, “with that premise it seems to be expanding any definition with the fund and its emissaries. It will be a tug-of-war between the government that knows the danger of promoting a sudden devaluation, and the need to ease a little official intervention on the market.
Walter Morales, president of the economy and finance consultancy Wise, is also one of those who warns that this relative calm (with a rising blue and fairly stable stock prices) is “temporary” because “it is impossible for the dollar to remain unchanged with inflation above 3% per month. At some point the dollar adjusts ”.
“Until public accounts are put in order, reserves are increased and the rise in retail prices slows down, we cannot think of a quiet dollar,” he added.
